Friday 24 October 2008

Placing a bet on gold

Gold tumbles to below $700 as fund liquidation continues

Gold hits 13-mth low on fund liqudity concern

The demand for gold has been soaring in Thailand since the gold price plunged yesterday. Apparently, many gold shops in BKK were actually closed for business. The forecasts for gold price movements vary but we have decided to bet on a positive outlook and be part of the game. We are buying for the first time! *SWEAT* The last time my FIL traded, he made 70k Baht in a week (S$3k+). I don't think we would be able to see gains in a week, but rather than letting our savings sit fallow in the bank earning bits from interest, we are buying in gold now and keeping our fingers cross on gold price.

From Aftershock and Gold Rocket

"...The most common question being asked is, “If gold is in such strong demand and short supply, why is the price so weak?”

And that’s a little bit complicated, but like most everything in these most volatile times, nothing makes sense. At least, not in the short term. Instead of re-iterating the explanation of the downward pressure created by the gold carry trade and the futures market, I refer readers to the excellent work of John Embry and Andrew Hepburn, who published a work called “Not Free, Not Fair, and which is available here: http://www.sprott.com/pdf/not_free_not_fair.pdf .

The bottom line is this: the massive repatriation of US Dollars as a result of de-leveraging globally and the unwinding of so many credit contingent deals is making the US Dollar look strong, while the gold manipulation cartel is exerting its utmost effort to keep the spot price of gold low through concentrated short positions on COMEX. The price of gold will emerge from this negative influence on the next leg down and the economy goes into a broader paralysis instead of being limited as it is now to real estate and financials. Most credible analysts are recommending a minimum 30% exposure to gold for institutional portfolios.

Though its hard to imagine in the current price environment, both gold and silver are on the verge of a tremendous breakout to the upside, and if you can’t get your hands on the physical bullion over the next 24 months, the producing companies will be next followed closely by well cashed up junior explorers with million ounce+ deposits in National Instrument 43-101 compliant categories.

Ignore the negative press on gold, and recognize the current price weakness for what it is: the last time you’ll see gold this cheap in a long time, and therefore a huge opportunity..."

and Gold's recent slump bewilders investors

"...some analysts, however, said that in the long term, the U.S. rescue plans to inject liquidity into banks will stir inflation and a devaluation of the dollar -- something that would be bullish for gold prices.
"An extraordinary amount of liquidity has been pumped into the system this year," said Peter Grant, senior analyst at USAGOLD. "I anticipate further debasement of all currencies, including the dollar, which will ultimately drive gold prices higher."..."

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